We've all seen the offers, "$150 for a week of picks" or "All of our picks for a month for only $300".
It has always bothered us how Tout services offer time-based subscriptions, as this would indicate that there is pressure to provide picks every day, rather than on the probability of the pick winning.
WinAllBets.com sells their quality selections based on the likelihood of them winning, not because we have to generate social media content or fulfill a "weekly" quota.
Yes, there are days where no selections qualify for either our Silver, Gold or Platinum packages... and often our 150% MONEY BACK GUARANTEED package is limited to 3-5 opportunities a week.
When your customers winning is more important than selling, you'd choose quality over quantity.
Most gamblers know that a team that Vegas list as -180 is more likely to win a match-up than a team listed as -120, but do you know by how much?
If you're like others, these numbers can be somewhat of a mystery. Well let us try and clear things up for you a bit, because this is actually a large part of how our system is so successful, and a key factor in our ability to identify selections we're confident enough to offer our industry leading 150% MONEY BACK GUARANTEE.
These "Odds" are actually called "Implied Probability" and can be calculated by dividing the "Stake" (or amount wagered) by the "Total Payout" (Stake+Winnings) then multiplying by 100
For instance, if you were to wager on the NBA LA Lakers at -180, then your "Stake" would be 180, the "Total Payout" would be 280 (180+100), so the calculated "Implied Probability" would be (180/280)x100=64.28%
... and now you know
As an industry, historically we have used this 1u-5u system to communicate the probbability of a wager winning. Bettors have been advised to risk 1u on those plays that are less likely to win, and 5u on the ones most likely to win. We, at WinAllBets.com, say this dinosaur's days are over.
Let's start with "why" we gamble.
Most gamblers do so for a couple of reasons, those being either for profit or for entertainment (or both). Given that your average recreational bettor might, and we say "might" enthusiastically, have a allocated bankroll of $1,000 on any given day, this recreational bettor doesn't gamble for a living and wouldn't see the risk/reward of $10 as entertaining. Likewise, tourist aren't taking $1,000 to Vegas for a weekend to spend $10 per play, every 2 hours. Nor would your average sportsman, perceive being +$50 as a "winning weekend" worth celebrating. Bankroll size removed, a recreational gambler isn't going to see +3u (3% gain) as social media posting worthy.
Now let's look at the obsolete practicality of this notion.
Most, not all, Sportsbooks have a minimum wager of around $25, yet the old superannuated system of recommending 1u-5u would indicate a $10-$50 wager. So in most cases betting within this antiquated system isn't even doable.
Even the mighty T-Rex, in all the majestic wonder, eventually had to die.
One time or another we've all fallen for the "Live Bet" allure, a game is trending in a direction and you want to take advantage of that trend to make some money, however it rarely pays off... why?
1). Oddmakers use an enormous amount of data to evaluate and set lines, and we can all agree that they tend to be very accurate in doing so. This needs to be kept in mind when seeing an attractive "Live Bet" offering. Often the ebb and flow of a game is already factored into these set lines, and it is extremely rare for a game to remain consistent in its trending, so the urge to jump on a game that is either over or under producing should often be avoided.
2). Oddmakers are also setting the "Live Bet" lines. The existing trend, its probability of continuing, the duration of this trend and the regression back to the norm, are all taken into consideration when these "Live Bet" lines are created. With this in mind, any weakness you think you observe in a "Live Bet" line is probably exaggerated by personal bias.
3). Remember, a "Live Bet" takes place during live action, after a game has started and not during a natural break for betting action (i.e. halftime). This means that there is less time remaining in the match, and the less time there is, the less time there is for deviation from the expected norm. The say goes "on any given Sunday, any team can beat any other team", not "on any given Sunday with only 10 minutes left". The less time on the clock, the more likely Vegas is at being accurate.
As Sports gambling legalization continues to spread across this great country, we are seeing more and more Tout services pop-up everywhere you look. From Instagram, to Twitter, from YouTube to Podcast, there seems to be a Tout on every Internet corner. There is absolutely nothing wrong with the concept of Tout services, we're one of them, because more information is always better. What is alarming is the uptick in Sportsbook funded Touts, and consumers should be very wary.
Typically a Tout made its money from selling its advice to gamblers looking for an edge, but nowadays that income stream has been replaced by advertisements (where Social Media follower count drives income) or from the Sportsbook themselves. Sportsbooks are paying Tout services to drive customers to their website and/or application. Sportsbooks are not in this business to lose money. It is not a far stretch to assume that besides traffic, the Tout would add value by recommending high risk wagers.
The concept of a relationship between Touts and the Sportsbooks is not a new one. In fact, Vegas has historically used Touts to move public opinion and balance action for decades, but in this day of novice bettors and Internet action, this type of relationship is more dangerous than ever. We are in a age of "instant betting", where a trusted Tout's recommendation will be acted upon within seconds, without time to consider or investigate. If we continue to encourage this type of relationships, between Tout services and Sportbooks, then every Tout service will be considered tainted.
As a bettor looking to use a Tout service, you should always ask yourself the question, if there is a relationship between the Sportsbook and my Tout service, to what extent does that relationship reach?